Beyond Buffer-State Logic: Node-Based Agency in the Caspian–Middle East Conflict Network
- Shaoyuan Wu
Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0660-8232
Description
This conference paper develops a node-based account of strategic agency for middle and small states in networked conflict. It distinguishes structural centrality from implemented control and realized leverage, and applies an evidence-constrained comparison to Caspian logistics, Gulf basing and airspace access, and Ukraine’s transfer of counter-drone expertise. The analysis shows that centrality, implementation, counterpart effect, bargaining return, and durability must be established separately.
Abstract
Buffer-state approaches generally interpret geographically exposed states as objects of competition constrained by stronger rivals. This territorial view is incomplete for conflicts sustained through logistics corridors, overseas bases, airspace permissions, ports, sensors, maintenance systems, and transferable operational knowledge. This article asks when authority over such a connection can become strategic agency. It defines implemented node-based agency as purposeful use of a consequential node or interface, together with relevant control rights, that changes another actor’s admissible or effective use. The framework separates structural potential, a control attempt, implemented agency, and realized strategic leverage. Criticality, dependence, and substitutability shape potential leverage; control rights and discretion permit an attempt; and an observed access or use change establishes implementation. A response by the affected counterpart does not itself establish leverage: attribution, substantive effect, and direction must be specified. Negotiated benefit and resilience are separate outcomes. An evidence-constrained comparison examines the northern Caspian logistics system, Gulf basing and airspace access, and Ukraine’s provision of drone-interception expertise to five Middle Eastern states in 2026. Caspian evidence establishes situational logistics importance but not purposeful smaller-state conversion. The Gulf provides the most specific reported access-policy change, but conflicting accounts leave implementation provisional and downstream effects unverified. Ukraine’s deployment and subsequent Gulf agreements establish service delivery and partial institutional follow-through, but not direct reciprocity, recipient dependence, or relational weakness. The case therefore extends the framework to a knowledge interface without fully validating the weaker-state leverage claim. July attacks on Caspian-linked shipping and export infrastructure illustrate external intervention and network adaptation, not smaller-state agency or resilience. The article concludes that centrality, implementation, counterpart impact, bargaining return, and durability must be established separately.
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Keywords
- Buffer States
- Node-Based Agency
- Middle and Small States
- Networked Conflict
- Strategic Access
Subjects
- International Relations
- Geopolitics
- Middle and Small States
- Networked Conflict
- Strategic Access
- Caspian–Middle East Security
- Small-State Agency
Recommended citation
Wu, S. (2026). Beyond buffer-state logic: Node-based agency in the Caspian–Middle East conflict network. In Conference proceedings of the 1st RCASBC International Conference 2026: Rethinking rule-based global order: Middle and small states in a changing world. Hong Kong Research Center for Asian Studies–Bangladesh Center (RCASBC) & Department of International Relations, University of Chittagong.
APA citation
Wu, S. (2026). Beyond buffer-state logic: Node-based agency in the Caspian–Middle East conflict network. In Conference proceedings of the 1st RCASBC International Conference 2026: Rethinking rule-based global order: Middle and small states in a changing world. Hong Kong Research Center for Asian Studies–Bangladesh Center (RCASBC) & Department of International Relations, University of Chittagong.
Alternate identifiers
| Scheme | Identifier | Description |
|---|---|---|
| Conference Submission ID | RCASBC-2026-28 | Official RCASBC 2026 submission identifier |
| URL | https://publications.epinova.org/epinova-2026-cp-02/ | EPINOVA archival publication record page |
| URL | https://conference.rcasbc.org/ | Official RCASBC 2026 conference website |
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