Policy Briefs
72 publications
2026
- EPINOVA-PB-2026-069 — From AI-Enabled Weapons to AI-Orchestrated Warfare: The Emerging Global Military AI Stack in 2026
Policy Brief · 2026-08-17 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-068 — Iran After Succession: Power, Access, and Institutional Rebalancing under Mojtaba Khamenei
Policy Brief · 2026-08-12 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-067 — Rerouting the Gulf: Bypass Infrastructure and the Changing Strategic Value of the Strait of Hormuz
Policy Brief · 2026-08-10 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-066 — The Evolving Structure of the U.S.–Iran–Israel Conflict: MCEA and NMF Analysis of Analytical Days 1–159 Using MCCM v2.3.4
Policy Brief · 2026-08-06 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-065 — Operational Control versus Systemic Connectivity: The Emerging Structure of U.S.–China Competition under Networked Warfare
Policy Brief · 2026-07-30 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-064 — From Separate Wars to Linked Battlefields: The Emerging Risk of Continentalized Conflict
Policy Brief · 2026-07-27 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-063 — A Preliminary Assessment of Eastward and Northward Logistics Alternatives under Hormuz Pressure: The China–Russia–Central Asia–Caspian Network
Policy Brief · 2026-07-17 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-062 — Is the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict Entering Phase III?: Residual Target Depletion and the Shift from Asset Destruction to Functional Disruption
Policy Brief · 2026-07-08 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-061 — Khamenei’s Funeral as a Geopolitical Roll Call: The Emerging Middle East–Eurasia Order
Policy Brief · 2026-07-06 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-060 — Global AI Power Mapping: Domains, Alliances, and Rule Spaces
Policy Brief · 2026-06-26 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-059 — AI Capability Stratification: A Framework for the Future Distribution of AI Power
Policy Brief · 2026-06-26 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-058 — Beyond Model Capability: A System-Level Framework for AI Power
Policy Brief · 2026-06-25 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-057 — Israel’s Strategic Position After the U.S.–Iran MOU: Options, Constraints, and Implementation Risks
Policy Brief · 2026-06-15 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-056 — Three Conflicts Inside One War: The Fragmentation of the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict into U.S.–Iran, Iran–Israel, and U.S.–Israel Tracks
Policy Brief · 2026-06-14 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-055 — The First Ten Days of Phase II in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict: From War Termination to Systemic Realignment
Policy Brief · 2026-06-12 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-054 — External Strategic Nodes Under Pressure: Lebanon, Israel, and the Break Thresholds of Strategic Dependency
Policy Brief · 2026-06-05 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-053 — From War Powers to Loyalty Politics: Trump’s Iran Response and the Government–Nation Distinction
Policy Brief · 2026-06-04 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-052 — Renewed Strikes and the Risk of Conflict Resumption: Assessing June 3 Escalation Dynamics after the Fragile Ceasefire
Policy Brief · 2026-06-03 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-051 — Bargaining Under Systemic Pressure: U.S. Objective Compression, Iranian Leverage Institutionalization, and the Reconfiguration of Negotiating Goals in the 85-Day Conflict
Policy Brief · 2026-05-23 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-050 — Two Summits, Two Signals: U.S.–China Crisis Management, China–Russia Redundancy, and Caspian Shipping Rhythm
Policy Brief · 2026-05-22 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-049 — Signaling Without Settlement: An Assessment of Trump’s Beijing Visit and the Politics of Managed U.S.–China Competition
Policy Brief · 2026-05-15 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-048 — From Transit Fees to a Chokepoint–Hydrocarbon Value System: Repricing Passage, Energy Dependence, and Regional Leverage in the Strait of Hormuz
Policy Brief · 2026-05-13 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-047 — Shock-Responsive Resilience in the Caspian Logistics System: Measuring Rebound Capacity after External Strikes
Policy Brief · 2026-05-12 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-046 — From Hormuz Pressure to Continental Redundancy: China’s Landward Strategy across the Inner Eurasian Landward Interface: Iran’s Alternative Corridors, Pakistan’s Third-Country Transit Opening, and the Rebalancing of Eurasian Connectivity
Policy Brief · 2026-05-09 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-045 — China as a Stabilizing Network Node: Strategic Positioning and Risk-Adjusted Benefit in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict
Policy Brief · 2026-05-07 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-044 — Caspian Logistics Shock: Monitoring Russia–Iran Supply Stress after the Anzali Strike: Visible Vessel Contraction, Port-Rhythm Inversion, and Window-Based Logistics in the Caspian Corridor
Policy Brief · 2026-04-29 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-043 — Transit of Goods through Territory of Pakistan Order 2026: Six Land Routes, Third-Country Goods, and the Southeastern Bypass of Hormuz Pressure: Gwadar, Taftan, Gabd, and the Multimodal Logic of Threshold-Delaying Supply
Policy Brief · 2026-04-28 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-042 — Beyond Hormuz: Iran’s Ten-Corridor Logistics Adaptation under Blockade Pressure: Caspian Shipping, Central Asian Rail, and the Multi-Domain Logic of Threshold-Delaying Supply
Policy Brief · 2026-04-28 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-041 — Energy Endurance Under Systemic Shock: Divergent Survival Pathways in East Asia During the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict
Policy Brief · 2026-04-25 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-040 — Dynamic Threshold Positioning in U.S.–China Competition: A Phase-Resolved Assessment of Structural Resilience and LoCT Distance
Policy Brief · 2026-04-23 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-039 — Flow Persistence Under Blockade: Systemic Friction and the Emergence of a Porous Maritime Regime
Policy Brief · 2026-04-22 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-038 — Recovery during Ceasefire: A Structured Assessment of U.S., Israel, and Iran Force Reconstitution
Policy Brief · 2026-04-22 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-037 — Beyond the Battlefield: From Strike to System Disruption in the Caspian Logistics Network: From Strike to System Disruption in the Caspian Logistics Network
Policy Brief · 2026-04-21 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-036 — Who Is Ready Under Renewed Conflict?: A Capability–Sustainability Assessment of the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict
Policy Brief · 2026-04-20 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-035 — Escalation Without Collapse: High-Pressure Systemic Equilibrium in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict, Days 1–50
Policy Brief · 2026-04-18 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-034 — China in the U.S.–Iran Conflict: An MCCM v2.1 Assessment of Structural Exposure, Transmission Pressure, and Threshold-Coupling Risk
Policy Brief · 2026-04-17 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-033 — From Beneficiary to Burden Carrier: China’s Structural Exposure in the Strait of Hormuz Crisis
Policy Brief · 2026-04-17 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-032 — From Selective Restriction to Universal Blockade: Legal Contestation and Third-Party Naval Intervention in the Strait of Hormuz
Policy Brief · 2026-04-14 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-031 — Beyond the Gulf: The Emergence of a Three-Channel, Threshold-Delaying Logistics System in Iran under Sustained Geopolitical Constraint
Policy Brief · 2026-04-14 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-030 — Governing Fragmentation: Jurisdictional Competition and China’s Counter-Extraterritoriality Framework
Policy Brief · 2026-04-13 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-029 — From Cost Monitoring to Systemic Escalation Assessment: The MCCM v2.0+ Framework
Policy Brief · 2026-04-13 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-028 — U.S. Defense Procurement (Jan–Apr 2026): AI as the Foundation of Modern Warfare
Policy Brief · 2026-04-11 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-027 — Russia–Iran Northern Supply Capacity: A Three-Channel Assessment of Sustained Throughput Under Constraint
Policy Brief · 2026-04-09 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-026 — Ceasefire as Recovery Competition: Rearmament, External Support, and Strategic Regeneration in a Non-Enforcement Environment
Policy Brief · 2026-04-08 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-025 — Ceasefire Under Conditions of Non-Enforcement: Time Arbitrage, Negotiation Dynamics, and Controlled De-escalation in the U.S.–Iran Conflict with Israeli Structural Constraints
Policy Brief · 2026-04-06 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-024 — What Cannot Be Recovered Cannot Be Leveraged: Debris, Evidence, and Power in the Iran Battlefield
Policy Brief · 2026-04-05 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-023 — From Regional Power to Network Node: Iran’s Post-War Trajectory and Strategic Positioning
Policy Brief · 2026-04-04 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-022 — From Representative of the West to Primary Node: The Transformation of the United States in the Future Western and Transatlantic Political System
Policy Brief · 2026-04-03 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-021 — If the United States Suddenly Withdraws: Systemic Shock, Proxy Amplification, and Strategic Realignment in the Middle East Conflict
Policy Brief · 2026-04-01 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-020 — Israel’s Strategic Options and U.S. Rebalancing under Dual-Theater Constraints
Policy Brief · 2026-03-28 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-019 — From Compensation to Strategic Amplification: Iran’s Reparations Claims in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict
Policy Brief · 2026-03-27 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-018 — Control vs. Amplification: Information System Divergence in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict: Evidence from China’s Signaling System
Policy Brief · 2026-03-26 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-017 — Divergent War Aims: The U.S., Israel, and the Strategic Logic of Divergence in the Iran Conflict
Policy Brief · 2026-03-25 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-016 — Deterrence Under Cost Pressure: From Overmatch to Cost Imposition in the U.S.–Iran Conflict
Policy Brief · 2026-03-24 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-015 — Seizing Kharg Island: U.S. Operational Superiority and the Risk of Crossing the Loss-of-Control Threshold
Policy Brief · 2026-03-20 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-014 — Post-Nodal Warfare: Will Distributed AI Command Replace Human Leadership in High-Intensity Conflict?
Policy Brief · 2026-03-18 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-013 — Terminal Platform Nodes and Narrative Competition in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict
Policy Brief · 2026-03-14 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-012 — Narrative Underperformance in the First Week of the U.S.–Israel–Iran War
Policy Brief · 2026-03-07 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-011 — The First Week of the U.S.–Israel–Iran War: Battlefield Assessment and Next-Phase Risks
Policy Brief · 2026-03-06 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-010 — The U.S.–Iran War and East Asia’s Next Strategic Test: Why the Middle East Conflict May Reshape Risk in the Western Pacific
Policy Brief · 2026-03-06 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-009 — Escalation Dynamics in IRGC’s Operation True Promise: Interpreting the Conflict through an Escalation Ladder Framework
Policy Brief · 2026-03-04 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-008 — Escalation Risk in Protracted Missile Exchanges: Assessing Low-Probability, High-Impact Dynamics in the U.S.–Israel–Iran Conflict Based on IRGC Operation True Promise 4 (Waves 1–13)
Policy Brief · 2026-03-03 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-007 — Assessing AI Capabilities Across Six Major Countries and Economic Blocs: An Eight-Dimensional Comparative Framework
Policy Brief · 2026-02-27 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-006 — Lifecycle Cost Parity Between Human Personnel and AI-Enabled Systems: Implications for U.S. and China’s Force Structure Transition (2026–2060)
Policy Brief · 2026-02-19 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-005 — The Fiscal Implications of Recent U.S. Force Posture Adjustments in the Middle East: An Event-Driven Estimate (Jan 26 – Feb 15, 2026)
Policy Brief · 2026-02-16 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-004 — Where Data Centers Get Built?: Institutional Friction and the Spatial Logic of Compute Infrastructure in the United States
Policy Brief · 2026-02-09 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-003 — Managing Structural Exposure in the Arctic: Greenland as an AI-Strategic Node in Great-Power Interaction
Policy Brief · 2026-02-02 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-002 — Governing Structural Centrality: Greenland as an AI-Strategic Node under the AI-SNI Framework
Policy Brief · 2026-02-02 - EPINOVA-PB-2026-001 — From AI Capabilities to Structural Governance: Operationalizing the AI-Strategic Node Index (AI-SNI) for Practical AI Governance
Policy Brief · 2026-02-01
2025
- EPINOVA-PB-2025-003 — From Predictive Control to Robustness: Why Indeterminacy Outperforms Precision in Contested ISR Environments
Policy Brief · 2025-12-31 - EPINOVA-PB-2025-002 — Artificial Intelligence as National Power: Implications of the 2025 U.S. National Security Strategy
Policy Brief · 2025-12-26 - EPINOVA-PB-2025-001 — From Detection to Depletion: Sustainability Constraints in Counter-Drone Defense
Policy Brief · 2025-12-16