The First Week of the U.S.–Israel–Iran War
Battlefield Assessment and Next-Phase Risks
- Wu, Shaoyuan
Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0660-8232
Description
This policy brief assesses the first week of the U.S.–Israel–Iran war, arguing that the conflict has moved beyond limited reprisal into an unstable intermediate escalation band. It evaluates battlefield dynamics, missile-defense fatigue, maritime and economic spillover, joint-campaign integration, and threshold-crossing risks that may shape the next phase of the conflict.
Abstract
The first week of the U.S.–Israel–Iran war has moved the conflict beyond limited reprisal while remaining below the threshold of full-scale regional war. The brief argues that the war is operating in an unstable Level 4–6 escalation band, characterized by persistent missile-UAV exchange, widening maritime and economic spillover, and growing allied operational integration. It finds that no principal actor has achieved decisive military collapse or war-terminating advantage, but that the conflict is becoming more costly, more politically tense, and more vulnerable to threshold-crossing events. The next phase is likely to be determined less by average strike performance than by whether missile-defense fatigue, maritime and energy-channel pressure, and deeper U.S. joint-campaign integration deteriorate simultaneously.
Files
| Name | Type | |
|---|---|---|
| The First Week of the U.S.–Israel–Iran War.pdf Full-text PDF of the policy brief | application/pdf | Download |
Keywords
- U.S.–Israel–Iran war
- Iran conflict
- Middle East conflict
- Battlefield assessment
- Escalation risk
- Escalation ladder
- Level 4–6 escalation band
- Missile-UAV exchange
- Missile-defense fatigue
- Threshold-crossing event
- Critical node vulnerability
- Maritime spillover
- Energy volatility
- War-risk insurance
- Airspace disruption
- Joint-campaign integration
- Alliance coordination
- Systemic spillover
- Strategic stability
- MCCM
- EPINOVA
Subjects
- International security
- Middle East security
- Military strategy
- Escalation management
- Strategic studies
- Conflict monitoring
- Missile defense
- Maritime security
- Energy security
- Alliance politics
- Crisis stability
- Systemic risk
- Operational assessment
- Defense policy
- Global security governance
Recommended citation
Wu, Shaoyuan (2026), The First Week of the U.S.–Israel–Iran War: Battlefield Assessment and Next-Phase Risks, Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2026–PB–11, Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18896560. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
APA citation
Wu, S. (2026). The first week of the U.S.–Israel–Iran war: Battlefield assessment and next-phase risks (Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2026–PB–11). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18896560. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
Alternate identifiers
| Scheme | Identifier | Description |
|---|---|---|
| DOI | 10.5281/zenodo.18896560 | Zenodo/DataCite DOI stated in the PDF recommended citation |
| DOI | 10.5281/zenodo.18896559 | Earlier DOI from ORCID-derived metadata record retained for reconciliation |
| ORCID put-code | 207667677 | ORCID Public API record identifier from early metadata |
| EPINOVA policy brief number | EPINOVA–2026–PB–11 | Policy brief number printed in the PDF |
| File name | The First Week of the U.S.–Israel–Iran War.pdf | Source PDF file name |
| Short title | The First Week of the U.S.–Israel–Iran War | Short form of the policy brief title |
Related works
| Relation | Identifier | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Related EPINOVA policy brief providing the escalation-ladder framework referenced by the Level 4–6 assessment | 10.5281/zenodo.18869404 | ||
| Related EPINOVA policy brief on low-probability, high-impact escalation risks in missile exchanges | 10.5281/zenodo.18843800 | ||
| Related EPINOVA policy brief on cross-regional strategic effects of the same conflict | 10.5281/zenodo.18894858 |
References
No references listed.