From Predictive Control to Robustness
Why Indeterminacy Outperforms Precision in Contested ISR Environments
- Wu, Shaoyuan
Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0660-8232
Description
This policy brief argues that contested ISR environments transform uncertainty from an information deficit into a structural condition created by exposure, interaction, and adversary adaptation. It challenges precision-centric drone warfare assessment and recommends shifting evaluation toward robustness, adversary learning speed, exposure accumulation, and governance mechanisms compatible with survivability.
Abstract
For much of the past decade, drone warfare has been evaluated through a precision-centric lens. Advances in sensing, data fusion, and command-and-control have reinforced the assumption that improved detection, tighter synchronization, and faster decision cycles translate into durable operational advantage. This policy brief argues that this assumption breaks down in contested ISR environments, where uncertainty is produced by interaction, exposure, and adversary adaptation. Precision-centric approaches may accelerate opponent learning, compress decision windows, and undermine long-run effectiveness. Robustness-oriented postures that preserve spatiotemporal indeterminacy can raise adversary costs and provide alternative pathways to stability when paired with process-based accountability, audit-by-design, and signal-management safeguards.
Files
| Name | Type | |
|---|---|---|
| From predictive control to robustness Why indeterminacy outperforms precision in contested ISR environments.pdf Full-text PDF of the policy brief | application/pdf | Download |
Keywords
- Predictive control
- Robustness
- Indeterminacy
- Contested ISR
- Drone warfare
- Unmanned systems
- Adversary learning
- Exposure accumulation
- Measurement–exposure trade-off
- Spatiotemporal indeterminacy
- ISR environments
- Precision-centric warfare
- Force planning
- Escalation management
- Governance and verification
- Audit-by-design
- Signal management norms
- AI-enabled warfare
- Strategic stability
- EPINOVA
Subjects
- AI-enabled warfare
- Drone warfare
- ISR systems
- Strategic studies
- Defense policy
- Unmanned systems
- Military technology
- Escalation management
- AI governance
- Security governance
- Operational resilience
- Robustness and uncertainty
- Arms control and verification
- Public policy
Recommended citation
Wu, S.-Y. (2025). From predictive control to robustness: Why indeterminacy outperforms precision in contested ISR environments (Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2025–PB–03). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18110856. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
APA citation
Wu, S.-Y. (2025). From predictive control to robustness: Why indeterminacy outperforms precision in contested ISR environments (Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2025–PB–03). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18110856. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
Alternate identifiers
| Scheme | Identifier | Description |
|---|---|---|
| DOI | 10.5281/zenodo.18110856 | Zenodo/DataCite DOI stated in the PDF recommended citation |
| DOI | 10.5281/zenodo.18110855 | Earlier DOI from ORCID-derived metadata record retained for reconciliation |
| ORCID put-code | 201135159 | ORCID Public API record identifier from early metadata |
| EPINOVA policy brief number | EPINOVA–2025–PB–03 | Policy brief number printed in the PDF |
| File name | From predictive control to robustness Why indeterminacy outperforms precision in contested ISR environments.pdf | Source PDF file name |
| Short title | From Predictive Control to Robustness | Short form of the policy brief title |
Related works
| Relation | Identifier | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Related EPINOVA policy brief on counter-drone defense sustainability and mission-preservation metrics | 10.5281/zenodo.18037881 | ||
| Related EPINOVA working paper on uncertainty, presence, POSG modeling, and strategic stability in unmanned systems | 10.5281/zenodo.18081107 |
References
No references listed.