Flow Persistence Under Blockade
Systemic Friction and the Emergence of a Porous Maritime Regime
- Wu, Shaoyuan
Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC
https://orcid.org/0009-0008-0660-8232
Description
This policy brief analyzes the persistence of maritime flows after the April 13, 2026 U.S. maritime blockade targeting vessels entering or departing Iranian waters. It argues that continued tanker movement does not indicate policy failure, but reflects the emergence of a porous blockade regime in which strategic effects arise through systemic friction, volatility, behavioral adaptation, and cost imposition rather than full flow denial.
Abstract
Following the initiation of the U.S. maritime blockade at 10:00 ET on April 13, 2026, reporting indicated that at least 34 Iranian-linked oil tankers bypassed enforcement measures. This policy brief argues that continued maritime flows should not be read as evidence of blockade failure. Instead, the blockade restructured flows by introducing friction, volatility, and uncertainty into a continuous logistics system. The resulting porous blockade regime preserves throughput while degrading efficiency, predictability, and coordination. The brief situates this pattern within a broader shift in coercive strategy from denial to cost imposition, where strategic effect derives from making activity more difficult, risky, and expensive to sustain over time.
Files
| Name | Type | |
|---|---|---|
| Flow Persistence Under Blockade Systemic Friction and the Emergence of a Porous Maritime Regime.pdf Full-text PDF of the policy brief | application/pdf | Download |
Keywords
- Maritime blockade
- Porous blockade
- Systemic friction
- Flow persistence
- Cost imposition
- Persian Gulf
- Strait of Hormuz
- Iran
- U.S.–Iran conflict
- Maritime coercion
- Shipping risk
- AIS vessel tracking
- System Health Index
- SHI
- High-Pressure Systemic Equilibrium
- HPSE
- Threshold transition
- Maritime logistics
- Energy security
- Coercive strategy
- Probabilistic enforcement
- Strategic competition
- EPINOVA
Subjects
- Strategic studies
- Maritime security
- Energy security
- International security
- Conflict analysis
- Geopolitics
- Systems analysis
- Logistics networks
- Risk governance
- Escalation dynamics
- U.S.–Iran relations
- Persian Gulf security
- Critical infrastructure
- Supply-chain resilience
- Security policy
- Coercion and deterrence
Recommended citation
Wu, Shaoyuan (2026), Flow Persistence Under Blockade: Systemic Friction and the Emergence of a Porous Maritime Regime, Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2026–PB–39, Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19692504. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
APA citation
Wu, S. (2026). Flow persistence under blockade: Systemic friction and the emergence of a porous maritime regime (Policy Brief No. EPINOVA–2026–PB–39). Global AI Governance and Policy Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19692504. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.
Alternate identifiers
| Scheme | Identifier | Description |
|---|---|---|
| DOI | 10.5281/zenodo.19692504 | Zenodo/DataCite DOI stated in the PDF recommended citation |
| ORCID put-code | 212531167 | ORCID Public API record identifier from early metadata |
| EPINOVA policy brief number | EPINOVA–2026–PB–39 | Policy brief number printed in the PDF |
| File name | Flow Persistence Under Blockade Systemic Friction and the Emergence of a Porous Maritime Regime.pdf | Source PDF file name |
| Short title | Flow Persistence Under Blockade | Short form of the policy brief title |
Related works
| Relation | Identifier | Type | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| Related EPINOVA policy brief developing the High-Pressure Systemic Equilibrium concept used in this analysis | 10.5281/zenodo.19645873 | ||
| Related EPINOVA policy brief on systemic exposure, transmission pressure, and threshold-coupling risk in the same conflict system | 10.5281/zenodo.19633889 | ||
| Related EPINOVA policy brief on the Strait of Hormuz crisis and systemic exposure under maritime pressure | 10.5281/zenodo.19632808 | ||
| Related EPINOVA policy brief on the transition from selective restriction to broader blockade logic in the Strait of Hormuz | 10.5281/zenodo.19568379 | ||
| Related EPINOVA policy brief on Iranian logistics adaptation and bypass pathways under blockade pressure |
References
- {'citation': 'AIS vessel tracking data; Strait of Hormuz throughput estimates; shipping risk and insurance indicators; open-source reporting.', 'type': 'Data and source categories identified in Figure 1 resources', 'url': ''}