Published 2025-12-31 | Version v1.0
Research ReportOpenPublished

From Detection to Depletion: Cost-Exchange Limits in the Russia–Ukraine Drone War

Description

This research report develops a Minimum Viable, Auditable framework for evaluating counter-drone sustainability in the Russia–Ukraine drone war. It shifts assessment from intercept-centric measures toward cost-exchange sustainability, loss suppression, and mission-outcome preservation, using indicators such as CER, OLER, CER*obs, CPLAobs, KAPR, and KAPS.

Abstract

This research report examines cost-exchange limits in the Russia–Ukraine drone war and argues that unmanned aerial systems have shifted from tactical supplements to system-level drivers of military sustainability. Using a Minimum Viable, Auditable analytical baseline grounded in public data and conservative proxies, the report reframes counter-drone effectiveness away from intercept or shoot-down rates and toward sustainability- and mission-outcome-oriented evaluation. It integrates five indicators: Cost Exchange Ratio (CER), Observational Loss Suppression Ratio (OLER), composite cost-loss indicator CER*obs, Cost per Loss Avoided (CPLAobs), and Key Asset Preservation Ratio/Score (KAPR/KAPS). Applied to 2023–2025 public data, the analysis finds that high interception performance can coexist with deteriorating cost sustainability; that attack scale and saturation make unit cost curves decisive; and that mission outcomes such as power continuity and fuel supply preservation provide a more meaningful measure of strategic effect than interception counts alone. The report concludes that counter-UAS capability should be treated as an endurance capability under sustained saturation, requiring low-cost terminal layers, multi-sensor fusion, magazine-depth planning, and governance attention to AI-assisted detection and automated engagement.

Files

PDF preview
Files
NameType
From Detection to Depletion Cost-Exchange Limits in the Russia–Ukraine Drone War.pdf
Full-text PDF of the publication		application/pdfDownload

Keywords

  • Russia–Ukraine war
  • drone warfare
  • counter-UAS
  • counter-drone defense
  • unmanned aerial systems
  • UAS
  • UAV
  • Shahed
  • Geran
  • air defense
  • cost-exchange ratio
  • CER
  • CER*
  • CPLA
  • OLER
  • KAPR
  • KAPS
  • Minimum Viable Auditable
  • MVA
  • mission outcomes
  • critical infrastructure
  • energy infrastructure
  • power continuity
  • fuel supply
  • saturation
  • magazine depth
  • low-cost terminal defense
  • electronic warfare
  • sensor fusion
  • AI-enabled warfare
  • meaningful human control
  • strategic sustainability
  • EPINOVA

Subjects

  • AI-enabled warfare
  • Defense policy
  • Drone warfare
  • Counter-UAS
  • Military technology
  • Strategic studies
  • International security
  • Russia–Ukraine war
  • Critical infrastructure resilience
  • Cost-exchange analysis
  • Security governance
  • Public policy

Recommended citation

Wu, S. (2025). From Detection to Depletion: Cost-Exchange Limits in the Russia–Ukraine Drone War (Research Report). EPINOVA–2025–01–RR. Global AI Governance Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18036790. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.

APA citation

Wu, S. (2025). From detection to depletion: Cost-exchange limits in the Russia–Ukraine drone war (Research Report No. EPINOVA–2025–01–RR). Global AI Governance Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18036790. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.

Alternate identifiers

SchemeIdentifierDescription
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18036790Zenodo DOI landing page
EPINOVA report numberEPINOVA–2025–01–RRInternal EPINOVA research report identifier

Related works

RelationIdentifierTypeDescription
IsSupplementedByhttps://github.com/EPINOVALLC/EPINOVA-ResearchRepositorySupplementary repository and structural archive
IsIdenticalTohttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18036790Research ReportZenodo DOI record for this research report
Referenceshttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18110856Policy BriefRelated EPINOVA policy brief extending the argument from predictive control toward robustness in contested ISR environments
Referenceshttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18081107Working PaperRelated EPINOVA working paper on permanent presence under uncertainty, partially observable game-theoretic framing, cost-frequency dynamics, and strategic stability
Referenceshttps://www.csis.org/analysis/drone-saturation-russias-shahed-campaignAnalysisCSIS analysis used as a public source on Russia’s Shahed saturation campaign
Referenceshttps://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/RUSSIA-ENERGY/gdpzbxkgwpw/News analysisReuters visual investigation and reporting on Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure
Referenceshttps://isis-online.org/isis-reports/monthly-analysis-of-russian-shahed-136-deployment-against-ukraineReportInstitute for Science and International Security monthly analysis of Russian Shahed-136 deployment against Ukraine

References

  1. ACLED. (n.d.). Ukraine Conflict Monitor: Data and methodology. https://acleddata.com
  2. Atlantic Council. (2025, January 16). Ukraine’s escalating air attacks bring Putin’s invasion home to Russia. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraines-escalating-air-attacks-bring-putins-invasion-home-to-russia/
  3. Australian Army Research Centre. (2025, August 19). Translating Ukraine lessons for the Pacific Theatre. https://researchcentre.army.gov.au/library/occasional-papers/translating-ukraine-lessons-pacific-theatre
  4. Business Insider. (2025, November 11). Ukraine is fighting a war of innovations, and AI may be helping it down Russian drones. https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-drones-ai-shahed-geran-anti-air-defense-2025-11
  5. Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). (2023, September 27). An urgent matter of drones: Lessons for NATO from Ukraine. https://cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/an-urgent-matter-of-drones/
  6. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). (2024, October 23). Assessing Russian firepower strikes in Ukraine. https://www.csis.org/analysis/assessing-russian-firepower-strikes-ukraine
  7. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). (n.d.). Russian firepower strike tracker: Analyzing missile attacks in Ukraine. https://www.csis.org/programs/futures-lab/projects/russian-firepower-strike-tracker-analyzing-missile-attacks-ukraine
  8. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). (2025, May 13). Drone saturation: Russia’s Shahed campaign. https://www.csis.org/analysis/drone-saturation-russias-shahed-campaign
  9. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). (2025, September 9). Russia’s massed strikes: The strategy of coercion by salvo. https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-massed-strikes-strategy-coercion-salvo
  10. Congressional Research Service. (2025, March 31). Department of Defense counter unmanned aircraft systems (R48477). https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/PDF/R48477/R48477.2.pdf
  11. De Cubber, G. (2025). Standardized evaluation of counter-drone systems: Methods, technologies, and performance metrics. Drones, 9(5), 354. https://www.mdpi.com/2504-446X/9/5/354
  12. Department of Defense. (2023, January 25). DoD Directive 3000.09: Autonomy in weapon systems. https://www.esd.whs.mil/portals/54/documents/dd/issuances/dodd/300009p.pdf
  13. Department of Defense. (2024, December 5). Fact sheet: Strategy for countering unmanned systems. https://media.defense.gov/2024/Dec/05/2003599149/-1/-1/0/FACT-SHEET-STRATEGY-FOR-COUNTERING-UNMANNED-SYSTEMS.PDF
  14. European Commission. (2024, February 14). Updated Ukraine recovery and reconstruction needs assessment. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_801
  15. Federal Aviation Administration. (2024, February 5). UAS detection and mitigation systems ARC: Final report. https://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/rulemaking/committees/documents/media/UAS-Detection-Mitigation-Systems-ARC_Final-Report_02052024.pdf
  16. Gong, J., et al. (2023). Improved radar detection of small drones using Doppler signal-to-clutter ratio detector. Drones, 7(5), 316. https://www.mdpi.com/2504-446X/7/5/316
  17. Government of Ukraine, World Bank, European Commission, & United Nations. (2024). Third Ukraine rapid damage and needs assessment (RDNA3): February 2022–December 2023. https://ukraine.un.org/sites/default/files/2024-02/UA%20RDNA3%20report%20EN.pdf
  18. Government of Ukraine, World Bank, European Commission, & United Nations. (2025). Fourth Ukraine rapid damage and needs assessment (RDNA4): February 2022–December 2024. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099022025114040022
  19. Government Accountability Office. (2022). Counter-drone technologies. https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-22-105705.pdf
  20. Government Accountability Office. (2025, June 18). Army modernization: Air and missile defense efforts. https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-25-107491.pdf
  21. Human Rights Watch & Harvard Law School International Human Rights Clinic. (2023). Review of the 2023 U.S. policy on autonomy in weapons systems. https://humanrightsclinic.law.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Review-of-the-2023-US-Policy-on-Autonomy-in-Weapons-Systems.pdf
  22. Institute for Science and International Security. (2025, December 1). Monthly analysis of Russian Shahed-136 deployment against Ukraine. https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/monthly-analysis-of-russian-shahed-136-deployment-against-ukraine
  23. Institute for the Study of War. (2025). Russian force generation and technological adaptations updates. https://understandingwar.org
  24. International Institute for Strategic Studies. (2025, April 14). Russia doubles down on the Shahed. https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2025/04/russia-doubles-down-on-the-shahed/
  25. Joint Air Power Competence Centre. (2020). A comprehensive approach to countering unmanned aircraft systems. https://www.japcc.org/wp-content/uploads/A-Comprehensive-Approach-to-Countering-Unmanned-Aircraft-Systems.pdf
  26. Joint Chiefs of Staff. (2012). JP 3-01: Countering air and missile threats. https://defenseinnovationmarketplace.dtic.mil/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/JointDoctrine-CounteringAirandMissileThreats.pdf
  27. Khan, M. A., Menouar, H., Eldeeb, A., Abu-Dayya, A., & Salim, F. D. (2022). On the detection of unauthorized drones: Techniques and future perspectives. IEEE Sensors Journal. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSEN.2022.3171293
  28. National Institute of Standards and Technology. (2020). Measuring and comparing small unmanned aircraft systems: Test methods – Introduction. https://www.nist.gov/system/files/documents/2020/07/06/NIST%20sUAS%20Test%20Methods%20-%20Introduction%20%282020B1%29.pdf
  29. Open Source Munitions Portal. (n.d.). Shahed-136 series. https://osmp.ngo/model/shahed-136-series/
  30. Reuters. (2025, October 16). Inside Ukraine’s drone campaign to blitz Russia’s energy. https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/RUSSIA-ENERGY/gdpzbxkgwpw/
  31. Reuters. (2025, December 13). Ukraine’s Odesa suffers major blackouts after Russian attack. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraines-odesa-suffers-major-blackouts-after-russian-attack-2025-12-13/
  32. Sky News. (2025, November 4). Russian ‘suicide drone’ launches quadruple this year. https://news.sky.com/story/russian-suicide-drone-launches-quadruple-this-year-13463263
  33. United Nations Peacekeeping. (2025). Guidelines on counter unmanned aircraft systems. https://resourcehub01.blob.core.windows.net/%24web/Policy%20and%20Guidance/corepeacekeepingguidance/Thematic%20Operational%20Activities/Military/2025.16%20Guidelines%20on%20Counter%20Unmanned%20Aircraft%20Systems.pdf
  34. U.S. Army. (2017). ATP 3-01.81: Counter–unmanned aircraft system techniques. https://aviation-assets.info/wp-content/uploads/ARN3099_ATP-3-01x81-FINAL-WEB.pdf
  35. U.S. Army. (2025). FM 3-01: U.S. Army air and missile defense operations. https://rdl.train.army.mil/catalog-ws/view/100.ATSC/C01CC9C1-DA1C-4D5E-A6EB-5FCFAE218DCD-1398170439966/FM_3_01wc1.pdf
  36. World Bank Open Knowledge Repository. (2024–2025). Ukraine rapid damage and needs assessments (RDNA3–RDNA4). https://openknowledge.worldbank.org