Published 2025-12-31 | Version v1.0
Research ReportOpenPublished

From Detection to Depletion: Cost-Exchange Limits in the Russia–Ukraine Drone War

Description

This research report develops a Minimum Viable, Auditable framework for evaluating counter-drone sustainability in the Russia–Ukraine drone war. It shifts assessment from intercept-centric measures toward cost-exchange sustainability, loss suppression, and mission-outcome preservation, using indicators such as CER, OLER, CER*obs, CPLAobs, KAPR, and KAPS.

Abstract

This research report examines cost-exchange limits in the Russia–Ukraine drone war and argues that unmanned aerial systems have shifted from tactical supplements to system-level drivers of military sustainability. Using a Minimum Viable, Auditable analytical baseline grounded in public data and conservative proxies, the report reframes counter-drone effectiveness away from intercept or shoot-down rates and toward sustainability- and mission-outcome-oriented evaluation. It integrates five indicators: Cost Exchange Ratio (CER), Observational Loss Suppression Ratio (OLER), composite cost-loss indicator CER*obs, Cost per Loss Avoided (CPLAobs), and Key Asset Preservation Ratio/Score (KAPR/KAPS). Applied to 2023–2025 public data, the analysis finds that high interception performance can coexist with deteriorating cost sustainability; that attack scale and saturation make unit cost curves decisive; and that mission outcomes such as power continuity and fuel supply preservation provide a more meaningful measure of strategic effect than interception counts alone. The report concludes that counter-UAS capability should be treated as an endurance capability under sustained saturation, requiring low-cost terminal layers, multi-sensor fusion, magazine-depth planning, and governance attention to AI-assisted detection and automated engagement.

Files

PDF preview
PDF preview

Mobile browsers may not display embedded PDF previews reliably. Open the PDF directly for the best reading experience.

Open PDF Download PDF
Files
NameType
From Detection to Depletion Cost-Exchange Limits in the Russia–Ukraine Drone War.pdf
Full-text PDF of the publication		application/pdfDownload

Keywords

  • Russia–Ukraine war
  • drone warfare
  • counter-UAS
  • counter-drone defense
  • unmanned aerial systems
  • UAS
  • UAV
  • Shahed
  • Geran
  • air defense
  • cost-exchange ratio
  • CER
  • CER*
  • CPLA
  • OLER
  • KAPR
  • KAPS
  • Minimum Viable Auditable
  • MVA
  • mission outcomes
  • critical infrastructure
  • energy infrastructure
  • power continuity
  • fuel supply
  • saturation
  • magazine depth
  • low-cost terminal defense
  • electronic warfare
  • sensor fusion
  • AI-enabled warfare
  • meaningful human control
  • strategic sustainability
  • EPINOVA

Subjects

  • AI-enabled warfare
  • Defense policy
  • Drone warfare
  • Counter-UAS
  • Military technology
  • Strategic studies
  • International security
  • Russia–Ukraine war
  • Critical infrastructure resilience
  • Cost-exchange analysis
  • Security governance
  • Public policy

Recommended citation

Wu, S. (2025). From Detection to Depletion: Cost-Exchange Limits in the Russia–Ukraine Drone War (Research Report). EPINOVA–2025–01–RR. Global AI Governance Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18036790. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.

APA citation

Wu, S. (2025). From detection to depletion: Cost-exchange limits in the Russia–Ukraine drone war (Research Report No. EPINOVA–2025–01–RR). Global AI Governance Research Center, EPINOVA LLC. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18036790. DOI: To be assigned after Crossref membership approval.

Alternate identifiers

SchemeIdentifierDescription
DOIhttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18036790Zenodo DOI landing page
EPINOVA report numberEPINOVA–2025–01–RRInternal EPINOVA research report identifier

Related works

RelationIdentifierTypeDescription
IsSupplementedByhttps://github.com/EPINOVALLC/EPINOVA-ResearchRepositorySupplementary repository and structural archive
IsIdenticalTohttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18036790Research ReportZenodo DOI record for this research report
Referenceshttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18110856Policy BriefRelated EPINOVA policy brief extending the argument from predictive control toward robustness in contested ISR environments
Referenceshttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18081107Working PaperRelated EPINOVA working paper on permanent presence under uncertainty, partially observable game-theoretic framing, cost-frequency dynamics, and strategic stability
Referenceshttps://www.csis.org/analysis/drone-saturation-russias-shahed-campaignAnalysisCSIS analysis used as a public source on Russia’s Shahed saturation campaign
Referenceshttps://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/RUSSIA-ENERGY/gdpzbxkgwpw/News analysisReuters visual investigation and reporting on Ukraine’s drone campaign against Russian energy infrastructure
Referenceshttps://isis-online.org/isis-reports/monthly-analysis-of-russian-shahed-136-deployment-against-ukraineReportInstitute for Science and International Security monthly analysis of Russian Shahed-136 deployment against Ukraine

References

  1. ACLED. (n.d.). Ukraine Conflict Monitor: Data and methodology. https://acleddata.com
  2. Atlantic Council. (2025, January 16). Ukraine’s escalating air attacks bring Putin’s invasion home to Russia. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/ukraines-escalating-air-attacks-bring-putins-invasion-home-to-russia/
  3. Australian Army Research Centre. (2025, August 19). Translating Ukraine lessons for the Pacific Theatre. https://researchcentre.army.gov.au/library/occasional-papers/translating-ukraine-lessons-pacific-theatre
  4. Business Insider. (2025, November 11). Ukraine is fighting a war of innovations, and AI may be helping it down Russian drones. https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-drones-ai-shahed-geran-anti-air-defense-2025-11
  5. Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). (2023, September 27). An urgent matter of drones: Lessons for NATO from Ukraine. https://cepa.org/comprehensive-reports/an-urgent-matter-of-drones/
  6. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). (2024, October 23). Assessing Russian firepower strikes in Ukraine. https://www.csis.org/analysis/assessing-russian-firepower-strikes-ukraine
  7. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). (n.d.). Russian firepower strike tracker: Analyzing missile attacks in Ukraine. https://www.csis.org/programs/futures-lab/projects/russian-firepower-strike-tracker-analyzing-missile-attacks-ukraine
  8. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). (2025, May 13). Drone saturation: Russia’s Shahed campaign. https://www.csis.org/analysis/drone-saturation-russias-shahed-campaign
  9. Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). (2025, September 9). Russia’s massed strikes: The strategy of coercion by salvo. https://www.csis.org/analysis/russias-massed-strikes-strategy-coercion-salvo
  10. Congressional Research Service. (2025, March 31). Department of Defense counter unmanned aircraft systems (R48477). https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/R/PDF/R48477/R48477.2.pdf
  11. De Cubber, G. (2025). Standardized evaluation of counter-drone systems: Methods, technologies, and performance metrics. Drones, 9(5), 354. https://www.mdpi.com/2504-446X/9/5/354
  12. Department of Defense. (2023, January 25). DoD Directive 3000.09: Autonomy in weapon systems. https://www.esd.whs.mil/portals/54/documents/dd/issuances/dodd/300009p.pdf
  13. Department of Defense. (2024, December 5). Fact sheet: Strategy for countering unmanned systems. https://media.defense.gov/2024/Dec/05/2003599149/-1/-1/0/FACT-SHEET-STRATEGY-FOR-COUNTERING-UNMANNED-SYSTEMS.PDF
  14. European Commission. (2024, February 14). Updated Ukraine recovery and reconstruction needs assessment. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_24_801
  15. Federal Aviation Administration. (2024, February 5). UAS detection and mitigation systems ARC: Final report. https://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/rulemaking/committees/documents/media/UAS-Detection-Mitigation-Systems-ARC_Final-Report_02052024.pdf
  16. Gong, J., et al. (2023). Improved radar detection of small drones using Doppler signal-to-clutter ratio detector. Drones, 7(5), 316. https://www.mdpi.com/2504-446X/7/5/316
  17. Government of Ukraine, World Bank, European Commission, & United Nations. (2024). Third Ukraine rapid damage and needs assessment (RDNA3): February 2022–December 2023. https://ukraine.un.org/sites/default/files/2024-02/UA%20RDNA3%20report%20EN.pdf
  18. Government of Ukraine, World Bank, European Commission, & United Nations. (2025). Fourth Ukraine rapid damage and needs assessment (RDNA4): February 2022–December 2024. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099022025114040022
  19. Government Accountability Office. (2022). Counter-drone technologies. https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-22-105705.pdf
  20. Government Accountability Office. (2025, June 18). Army modernization: Air and missile defense efforts. https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-25-107491.pdf
  21. Human Rights Watch & Harvard Law School International Human Rights Clinic. (2023). Review of the 2023 U.S. policy on autonomy in weapons systems. https://humanrightsclinic.law.harvard.edu/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Review-of-the-2023-US-Policy-on-Autonomy-in-Weapons-Systems.pdf
  22. Institute for Science and International Security. (2025, December 1). Monthly analysis of Russian Shahed-136 deployment against Ukraine. https://isis-online.org/isis-reports/monthly-analysis-of-russian-shahed-136-deployment-against-ukraine
  23. Institute for the Study of War. (2025). Russian force generation and technological adaptations updates. https://understandingwar.org
  24. International Institute for Strategic Studies. (2025, April 14). Russia doubles down on the Shahed. https://www.iiss.org/online-analysis/military-balance/2025/04/russia-doubles-down-on-the-shahed/
  25. Joint Air Power Competence Centre. (2020). A comprehensive approach to countering unmanned aircraft systems. https://www.japcc.org/wp-content/uploads/A-Comprehensive-Approach-to-Countering-Unmanned-Aircraft-Systems.pdf
  26. Joint Chiefs of Staff. (2012). JP 3-01: Countering air and missile threats. https://defenseinnovationmarketplace.dtic.mil/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/JointDoctrine-CounteringAirandMissileThreats.pdf
  27. Khan, M. A., Menouar, H., Eldeeb, A., Abu-Dayya, A., & Salim, F. D. (2022). On the detection of unauthorized drones: Techniques and future perspectives. IEEE Sensors Journal. https://doi.org/10.1109/JSEN.2022.3171293
  28. National Institute of Standards and Technology. (2020). Measuring and comparing small unmanned aircraft systems: Test methods – Introduction. https://www.nist.gov/system/files/documents/2020/07/06/NIST%20sUAS%20Test%20Methods%20-%20Introduction%20%282020B1%29.pdf
  29. Open Source Munitions Portal. (n.d.). Shahed-136 series. https://osmp.ngo/model/shahed-136-series/
  30. Reuters. (2025, October 16). Inside Ukraine’s drone campaign to blitz Russia’s energy. https://www.reuters.com/graphics/UKRAINE-CRISIS/RUSSIA-ENERGY/gdpzbxkgwpw/
  31. Reuters. (2025, December 13). Ukraine’s Odesa suffers major blackouts after Russian attack. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/ukraines-odesa-suffers-major-blackouts-after-russian-attack-2025-12-13/
  32. Sky News. (2025, November 4). Russian ‘suicide drone’ launches quadruple this year. https://news.sky.com/story/russian-suicide-drone-launches-quadruple-this-year-13463263
  33. United Nations Peacekeeping. (2025). Guidelines on counter unmanned aircraft systems. https://resourcehub01.blob.core.windows.net/%24web/Policy%20and%20Guidance/corepeacekeepingguidance/Thematic%20Operational%20Activities/Military/2025.16%20Guidelines%20on%20Counter%20Unmanned%20Aircraft%20Systems.pdf
  34. U.S. Army. (2017). ATP 3-01.81: Counter–unmanned aircraft system techniques. https://aviation-assets.info/wp-content/uploads/ARN3099_ATP-3-01x81-FINAL-WEB.pdf
  35. U.S. Army. (2025). FM 3-01: U.S. Army air and missile defense operations. https://rdl.train.army.mil/catalog-ws/view/100.ATSC/C01CC9C1-DA1C-4D5E-A6EB-5FCFAE218DCD-1398170439966/FM_3_01wc1.pdf
  36. World Bank Open Knowledge Repository. (2024–2025). Ukraine rapid damage and needs assessments (RDNA3–RDNA4). https://openknowledge.worldbank.org